Running your shop with science, not just caffeine.
WHAT Picking 50 customers to represent all 5,000 who visit your shop.
WHY You want to know if people like your new "Lavender Latte," but you can't interview every person in line without causing a traffic jam!
HOW Interviewing every 10th person who walks in, regardless of what they look like.
WHEN Before you commit to buying 50lbs of lavender syrup.
WHAT Plotting your sales to see the "shape" of your customers.
WHY To see if your "Average Customer" actually exists.
HOW Creating a histogram of Customer Age vs. Sugar Packets.
WHEN When you notice your sugar inventory is disappearing faster than expected.
WHAT Guessing the total monthly milk demand based on just one week of data.
WHY You need to order milk from the farm, but you need a "safety margin" so you don't run out.
HOW Calculate your average daily milk use + a Confidence Interval (the +/- range).
WHEN Every Sunday night before placing the supply order.
Projected Milk Order
42 Gallons
± 4 Gallons
WHAT Checking if your "Free Cookie" promotion actually increased profits.
WHY You made more money today, but was it the cookies? Or was it just a rainy day (which makes people buy more coffee)?
HOW Compare "Cookie Days" to "No Cookie Days" using a P-Value.
WHEN Before you give away 1,000 more free cookies.
Is the profit increase real?
WHAT Using the weather forecast to decide how many muffins to bake.
WHY Baking 100 muffins when only 20 people show up is a waste of money.
HOW Building a model where Temp + Day of Week = Estimated Muffin Sales.
WHEN At 5:00 AM every morning when you turn on the oven.
Bake Exactly:
85
Muffins for tomorrow